Friday, August 29, 2025

When will AI's "Monsanto Moment" come?

 I cannot help but see parallels between the introduction of AI into software development, and the rise of gene modification in crops. Crops have had their genes modified through domestication for centuries, but the rise of corporations like Monsanto popularizing lab-based manipulation led to the patent system being used to protect that investment.  Back in the early 2000's there was a big push to try and scare consumers about supposed risks of GMO crops, and a lot of that fear carries over today with consumers demanding non-GMO produce on the assumption that it is healthier. The reality behind that push wasn't around health and safety, it was around money and the use of these patents to force farmers to change their practices. Prior to GMO crops, farmers would buy seed stock, and if they had a good harvest they could opt to save some of it as seed for the next year. When they bought GMO seed stock, stuff that was resistant to insects or to herbicides, etc. they sign a contract that bars them from being able to keep seed stock. Each year they would need to buy the full allotment of GMO seed. The company would even go so far as to sue adjacent farmers that might benefit from cross-pollination from GMO fields.  This rather heavy-handed treatment of farmers wasn't likely to garner much sympathy from the general public who only stood to benefit from better supply from the increased yields. Still, to attack back at these corporations, supporters attacked GMO any way they could.

Today, AI tools are becoming increasingly available, at low cost or even free. People have started asking the questions around ownership, both in terms of the licensing/copyright of the code these AI tools have been trained with, and the code they in turn generate. For now, companies like Microsoft will claim if you use an AI tool and in turn get challenged by a copyright holder for a violation, they've got your back, while at the same time what code the tool generates is your IP.. But for how long? Monsanto didn't start from scratch with the gene makeup of the crops it improved. Generations of botanists, farmers, etc. experience and cross-breeding had supplied the current base. Much of that was done for little more than recognition for their work, out in the public domain, expecting that future efforts for improvement would remain freely available. That is until big industry finds a way to patent it's work, commercialize it, and take ownership of it. When it comes to business, it is a lot like fishing. When you first sense a fish is biting at your bait, you need to resist the urge to yank the line or you pull the hook out of its mouth. Fish can be clever and grab the edge of a bait and waiting for a free meal. No, instead you wait patiently until the fish is committed, then pull and set the hook. Once they could convince the patent office and courts, the hook was firmly set.

Today, companies like Microsoft have invested a good deal of money into developing and marketing these AI tools. They are putting their lines out in the water with tasty bait offering to help companies and development teams produce better quality code and products faster than ever. They are being patient, not to spook the fish. Today you own what the tool generates, but soon, I'd wager, companies like Microsoft will set that hook, and like Monsanto, demand their share of the value of the yield you produce directly, or indirectly from their seed; By force. How that exactly shapes up, we'll have to see. Perhaps terms that once you start development with AI assistance you cannot "opt out"? Or will they demand part ownership on the basis that their tools generated a share of the IP in the end product?

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